For every quota, seat category and branch, I measured how far the last rank moved from Round 1 to Round 2 in 2024 and in 2025, then applied both shifts to the 2026 Round 1 last rank. The low end assumes a Round 2 like 2024 (few seats added); the high end one like 2025 (many seats added). Tested on 2025, the 2024 shifts predicted Round 2 last ranks with a median error of —%, and 80% of branches were within —%.
This is an estimate, not an MCC figure. The 2026 Round 2 seat matrix (expected around 6–7 November) shows how many seats are vacated and added; more added seats push results toward the high end.